Count more than the licence
A realistic evaluation includes tool and model cost, developer time, review effort, rework, defects, and the value of reaching a usable outcome. The mix differs by task type and team.
A faster first patch may not be a gain if it creates more review or maintenance work. A longer exploratory session may be valuable if it resolves uncertainty before implementation.
Compare like with like
Choose a defined class of work and compare trajectories with similar requirements, risk, and starting context. Look at the full path rather than only the moment where code was generated.
Useful signals can include time to a verified result, repeated attempts, review changes, follow-up work, and whether the team learned a practice that transfers to later tasks.
Treat the result as a decision aid
ROI analysis should help decide which tools, workflows, or task types deserve further investment. It should not be used to rank individual developers or claim that a tool caused a business result from correlation alone.
Make uncertainty explicit and revisit the calculation as models, prices, and working habits change.
Frequently asked questions
Is ROI equal to lower AI spend?
No. Lower spend can be useful, but it can also reflect less exploration or more work moved into review and correction.
What is a good first ROI pilot?
Use one comparable task family, agree what a usable result means, and compare cost with verification, rework, review, and developer time.
TraceYield
Start with one real work trajectory.
Discuss the question you want to investigate with TraceYield and the context required to answer it.
Request a pilot